Aero's 15th Birthday

Today is Aero's 15th birthday. He was our first show dog, and became an AKC champion in 2010, under Carol Duntemann's expert handling. The photos below are of Aero when we first got him in 2006, and from the 2009 Bichon Frise National Specialty show in St. Louis.

He's still reasonably spry for a dog that old, though he doesn't see very well and gets confused now and then. Given that he's now 105 in dog years, I'm very happy he's still with us and still running around.

We'll be giving him his usual birthday "cake" of raw hamburger a little later today after supper. Everybody gets some--and sometimes I think it's gone in nanoseconds. But however he wants to enjoy his birthday is fine by us. He's been a terrific dog, loved the show ring, and brought us a great many ribbons. If he mostly sleeps in one of the (many) dog beds scattered around the house these days, that's ok. He's earned it.

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Odd Lots

  • The major social networks are now suppressing any mention of research that supports the effectiveness of ivermectin and HCQ against SARS-CoV-2. I've given up, as it's a bad use of my time to try to slip information past those insufferable busybodies. So I guess I have to be content with Contra here and MeWe, which so far hasn't given anybody any grief about discussing COVID treatments and related issues. Feel free (in fact, I encourage you) to spread these links around any way you can.
  • There's what looks like a very good free PDF guide to home treatment of COVID-19, from The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons. It aligns with the reading I've done of peer-reviewed research on the topic.
  • Another very good site for laypersons on COVID-19 treatment is The Front Line COVID Critial Care Alliance, a group of physicians who are trying to make sure people have someplace to go for information that isn't vetted by a cadre of arrogant billionaires whose sum total of medical experience is putting bandaids on their owies.
  • I read a book last week from an Arizona physician who gathered over 500 medical research papers on topics that bear on the COVID-19 issue. The Defeat of COVID is sometimes a bit of a slog, but the citations are solid gold. If you have more than a passing interest in the topic, I encourage you to get it. You're sure not going to see any of this research linked on the social networks.
  • One thing you have to remember is that the panic-porn industry is talking solely about cases. A case is a positive test. Period. A case does not have to be symptomatic. They aren't talking about deaths because deaths don't seem to be rising. Certainly deaths in Arizona are not. (Click through to the graph and it'll be obvious.)
  • The CDC is withdrawing its support from the PCR test, which can be "cranked up" to absurd sensitivity. Here's a direct quote from an article in the British Medical Journal: "Another problem with relying on PCR testing alone to define a COVID-19 case is that, owing to the sensitivity of the test, it can pick up a single strand of viral RNA-but this doesn't necessarily equate to someone being infected or infectious."
  • There are a fair number of studies of ivermectin as treatment for COVID-19. Here's one from Antiviral Research, a journal published by Elsevier.
  • Ditto HCQ. Here's one from the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, with this money quote: "Risk stratification-based treatment of COVID-19 outpatients as early as possible after symptom onset using triple therapy, including the combination of zinc with low-dose hydroxychloroquine, was associated with significantly fewer hospitalisations."
  • To close out this COVID-19 issue of Odd Lots, a blatantly obvious bot-distributed hoax campaign on Twitter was not flagged by their supposed fact-checkers. I just did a Twitter search on "I just left the ER. We" and got quite a few laughs out of people making fun of the hoax, and (by implication) Twitter itself. Really, go look. It's hilarious.
  • Had to fetch down a sample of the merriment:
    "I just left the ER . We are officially back to getting crushed by vegetables. Arugula is running rampant and it's MUCH more transmissible than the original lettuce. 99% of our ICU admits did NOT eat a steak. Virtually ALL of them wish they had."
  • (Many thanks to Bill Meyer for some of these links.)

Birthdays and Horizons

69 today. That's a good number, as it's the same upside-down as rightside-up. The last one of those I passed through was 11, so it's been awhile. (Ok, sure 1 and maybe 8, depending on the font.) Quick aside: 1961 also looked the same both ways, at least on pennies.

69 is the last year before one of what I call horizons rises to meet me: As a younger man, I thought of 70 as the horizon between ordinary people and...old people. So next year I'll be a genuine, card-carrying Old Guy. Does this bother me?

Not on your life. Or mine.

Life is all about horizons. When I was in kindergarten, first grade was a horizon. When I was in grade school, high school and college were horizons. Marriage was a horizon, understanding it poorly as I did when I was six or seven. I remember wondering if you had to have a job before you could get married. I imagined living with a girl, and it was a...peculiar imagining, at 9 or 10. In truth, I could more easily imagine going to the Moon. I considered that a horizon as well; in fact, when I was a senior in high school, my lunch table vowed to meet on the Moon on New Year's Eve 1999. It seemed so far away, in time as in space. We'd come so far so fast--how could it not happen?

Not every horizon comes when it's called.

College, mon dieu. That horizon that hit me in the face and damned near broke my nose. I got past it. I graduated, and got a job. That was a horizon. Leaving home was a horizon, one I avoided for far too long. I proposed to my best friend--one horizon--followed all too quickly by our wedding--another horizon.

Ordinary life can be deceptive. If you squint a little, you can avoid seeing any horizons. You get up, go to work, come home, have dinner, write/tinker/work 20 meters, then go to bed, confident that the same thing will happen tomorrow. Nonetheless, the horizons are there. My father's death was a horizon, one I could see coming a long way off, and it shook me to the core. Scarcely a year later, one of my friends died. He was a fireman, and a wall fell on him while he was making sure everyone had gotten out alive. Seeing friends die is a horizon that few of us see coming, especially when we're still in our twenties. It was scant comfort to remind myself that Bill Nixon was a hero. He was only the first. There have been many since then.

Starting my own company was a old dream of mine, and in 1989 it jumped up and said "Hi!" Horizons can be like that. Losing that company 12 years later was another horizon, one that almost ate me alive. Having my first book published was an even older horizon. I remember a dream in which I was holding my first book, without knowing what book it was. Sometimes horizons don't tell you much about themselves until they're already in your rear-view mirror.

Retirement was a very old horizon; I remember thinking as a teen that 2017--when I would turn 65--was an eternity away. Flying cars! Mars base! Heh. Today, well, 2017 seems almost quaint.

Horizons are firsts and onlies. You do them once and they change you, and then, sooner or later another one comes around the corner at a gallop.

Be ready.

The Ionophore Experiment

A year and some months ago, when the whole COVID-19 thing was just getting out of second gear, one of the doctors I see recommended that Carol and I take zinc and the OTC supplement quercetin every day. The explanation was simple: Quercetin is a zinc ionophore. Ionophores are chemicals able to transport certain ions through cell membranes through which those ions would not ordinarily pass. Zinc is known to attack viruses of all sorts, especially cold and flu viruses. Quercetin attaches to zinc ions and escorts them through cell membranes, into the cells where viruses replicate. Zinc stops virus replication cold.

This sounded familiar, and it was. About that time I had begun hearing of the work of Dr. Zev Zelenko, a New York physician who had begun treating early COVID-19 patients with a drug cocktail consisting of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), Zinc, and an antibiotic. Dr. Zelenko has a wonderful metaphor describing the cocktail's operation: Zinc is the bullet. HCQ is the gun. Sure, it's a little more complex than that, but despite metric megatonnes of anti-HCQ bullshit in the media, the cocktail works.

I've seen quercetin described as a zinc ionophore in many places. HCQ is also a known zinc ionophore. It's a prescription drug that must be taken under medical supervision to avoid certain side effects. However, people I know personally are taking it every day and have for years for autoiummune disorders. I'm not sure how you measure the effectiveness of one zinc ionophore vs. another, so it's unclear how "strong" an ionophore has to be. Everything I've read suggests that quercetin is strong enough to kill viruses wholesale by escorting zinc into cells.

Quercetin has, at best, mild side effects. It's found in many foods, including kale. Alas, I won't eat kale, so I take it as an extract in a gelcap. Carol and I followed the physician's advice, and we've been taking 800 mg of quercetin once daily in a formula that includes bromelain. We also take 50 mg zinc daily in the form of zinc gluconate. I've talked about this before here on Contra, though it may have been a whole year ago or more. I bring it up again because Carol and I have noticed something unrelated to COVID-19: Neither of us has gotten a cold since we began taking quercetin plus zinc.

And that, my friends, is worth something. My long-time readers have heard me bitch about catching colds and feeling miserable down the years. I get one or sometimes two bad colds a year, and a scattering of sniffles that last for a few days and vanish. We get flu shots, but we still got the flu really bad back at the end of 2017. So the experiment is this: Even though we're fully vaccinated, we're going to keep taking quercetin plus zinc, and see how long it is before either of us catches a cold or flu. (We'll still get our flu shots. I'm a strong believer in vaccination.)

Now, a lot of the country is still hiding out, though here in Arizona mask mandates are mostly a thing of the past. So it's possible that we ducked colds for the past fourteen months by simply not rubbing shoulders with people much. Those days are past. We shop at big stores like Safeway and Target and Costco even when they're crowded and nobody has masks. In other words, we're more or less back to normal life. And my experience of "normal life" prior to COVID was (at least) one cold a year.

Carol and I aren't worried about COVID anymore. Is it possible that we don't have to worry about catching colds either? I'm turning 69 in a week. I'll recap in another year. There's still no cure for the common cold, but if two OTC supplements can stop colds before they start, man, I call that a revolution--and one helluva birthday present!

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Music You've Heard But Can't Name

Leroy Anderson came up in conversation recently, and I remarked that his orchestral compositions are a perfect example of music that everybody's heard but (almost) nobody can name. When you hear an Anderson piece, you think, Sure, everybody's heard that! But then you waste a minute or two trying to remember what it's called. And you fail.

There are exceptions. Anderson wrote "Sleigh Ride," and although you may not remember the name of the composer, you damned well know the name of the song.

I'm not sure what Leroy Anderson's most-heard but least-named piece is, but I'd wager it's "Fiddle Faddle." (If you like ants, here's a video of ants walking around to "Fiddle Faddle." Don't watch it if you don't like bugs. Fits somehow, though, doesn't it?) Second place may well go to "Blue Tango." with "Forgotten Dreams" close behind. A lot of people know the name of "The Syncopated Clock," but fewer, I think, could name Anderson as the composer.

My personal Anderson favorite may not be quite as well-known (It only made it to #180 of the Billboard annual tally--in 1953) but if you're among the 50+ crowd, you've definitely heard it. And the sound effects pretty much give it away. My grandmother gifted me her huge cast-iron Underwood typewriter in 1962, when I could barely lift it myself. I pounded on it for six years, until my godmother bought me a Smith-Corona electric in 1968. The Underwood Standard #5 hammered out a lot of my juvenalia during its tenure, but I'm pretty sure that it could not smack the platen anywhere near fast enough to do justice to Anderson's borderline-manic "The Typewriter." This guy tries pretty hard, though with a much smaller typewriter.

Which leads me to wonder: How many people these days have ever actually heard a manual typeriter, much less used one?

As for un-nameable music, Leroy Anderson had no lock on the concept. I think a lot of people have heard at least portions of "The Light Cavalry Overture" without knowing what it was. You'll have to listen for a couple of minutes to get to the familiar part. But when you do, you'll know it. It's become a metaphor for slogging doggedly along, and in truth I like the other parts better. Ditto Offenbach's "Orpheus in the Underworld Overture." You have to get about seven minutes into the work, but, then, yes, you've heard it a hundred times.

Any others come to mind?

Rant: If It's Not Aliens...Then What Is It?

If you're anywhere in the greater nerd universe, you've doubtless seen recent reports of Navy pilots spotting objects zipping around the sky and sometimes diving into the ocean. The Feds have declassified three videos of unidentified thimgamajigs doing their airborne calisthenics in the vicinity of US Navy fighter pilots.

So what is a reasonably sane person supposed to think about this?

UFOs as a phenomenon are not a new thing. It's older than I am, and I'll be 69 in a few weeks. Early on, the mythos crystallized around the theory that such objects are spacecraft (or aircraft) created by and piloted by intelligent beings from some other star system. There was (and still is) big money to be made on alien-based entertainment. Independence Day is one of my all-time favorite movies. The aliens myth (and I'm speaking in a Campbellian sense of the word "myth" here) is strong. I'm an SF writer. I should be a big aliens guy. I'm not.

I'm actually a Rare Earther. There are so many possible terms to the Drake Equation that I'm pretty sure we as a species are a vanishingly unlikely fluke. There are either hundreds of millions (or more) intelligent species in the universe, or there is only one. I reviewed an excellent book on Enrico Fermi's question and its possible answers. It's definitely worth reading.

I've been thinking a lot about the question since I read that book back in March. So what I'm going to do in this entry is list all the possible explanations for the Navy sightings that I can come up with, irrespective of their likelihood. Note well that I don't "believe" in any of them. I offer them as hypotheses. And yes, some of them are batshit nuts. I'm an SFF writer. Batshit nuts is just one more thing we deal with every day.

Buckle up, kids.

Tonight's question: What are those things the Navy pilots caught on film?

My hypotheses fall into three general categories:

  1. They really are made and piloted by aliens. I cite this for completeness only. I have reason to think it's not the case, since I have a hunch we are alone in the universe. I won't discuss this category further. It's long since been discussed to death.
  2. They are made and piloted by Hungarians. (This is an inside joke. Look it up.) What I mean by it is that the objects were created right here on Earth, as a result of top-secret research into novel physics. (Ok, here's a cheat.)
  3. They are the result of...weirdness. Patience. I'll get there.

So. It's possible that the objects are in fact aircraft of some sort, piloted or drones, created in somebody's lab somewhere under truly deadly secrecy. Physics is not as complete and airtight as physicists would like the general public to believe. The big glitch in physics currently is dark matter and dark energy, about which I have some quibbles, but set those aside. Darkstuff (my coinage) may be a telltale of novel physics, novel enough to give us "thrusters," that is, engines that don't depend on action/reaction; e.g., throwing stuff backwards.

If that's the case, the apparitions may simply be a show of force by whoever developed the thrusters. Let's hope those developers are American.

That's the entirety of Category 2 in a nutshell.

So let's take a look at Category 3. This is the fun stuff. I'll give you another list, of explanations that seem absurd on the surface...keeping in mind that we as a species have been wrong before, and we will doubtless be wrong again.

1. They are aircraft from Earth's own future, piloted by human beings who have figured out time travel. I like this one, as there is a whole series of novels buried in the premise. (Somebody may have already written them.) As I understand the physics, time travel, while difficult, is more possible than faster-than-light travel. It may require some of that darkstuff to make it work, but however it works, those Tic-Tac travelers could be somebody from a few hundred thousand years in our future. What they're up to is unclear. Maybe they're just testing their machinery. Maybe they'll announce themselves eventually. Maybe they're trying to stop us from making some really bad mistakes. (If so, they should have set their meters to 1900 and prevented us from creating Communism, which killed 100,000,000 people in the 20th century and is still killing them.)

2. They are glitches in the simulation that we here on Earth call The Universe. Glitches--or beta tests of new features. Maybe bugs--rounding errors, or off-by-one errors. Reality-as-software is a scary notion to anybody who's done any significant programming. Supposedly we could determine if we are in fact existing in a simulation, but I'm skeptical of that claim.

3. They are evolved but not intelligent organisms, originating in our solar system if not necessarily on Earth. (This is a variation on Category 1, but I put it here because it's way weirder than canonical big-eyed Aliens.) If exotic physics yielding thrusters are possible, they could emerge via evolution from conditions that could be radically different from what we have on Earth. Who knows what could cook itself up in the atmospheres of Jupiter or Saturn? What I mean here is something like an animal, not self-reflective, but posessed of the means to cross interplanetary distances. Maybe they thrusted their way here, zipped around for awhile sampling the local environment, and finally decided it's not fun and went home. It's humbling to admit that they may not have noticed our presence at all while they were here.

4. They are poltergeist activity. (Hey, don't zone out. I warned you!) This is tough to describe, but it's a scruffy box into which we could place all sorts of "paranormal" phenomena--some of which look suspiciously like reactionless motion. Telekinesis, psi powers, all that stuff. A friend of mine was confronting poltergeist activity fifteen-odd years ago, and Colin Wilson has written about it extensively. Objects fly around the room, appear and disappear, with no known force behind any of it. Peculiar mental powers seem to exist. I've experienced a couple of those things that I still can't explain. But they happened. (I can't go into any of it here.) Maybe our UFOs are just astral travelers, out for a ride without having any suspicion that they can be seen or perhaps any clear notion of where they are.

5. They are irruptions from the collective unconscious. Some might choose to toss this in the poltergeist box as well, at least those who think poltergeists are irruptions from the collective unconscious. I don't. I've read extensively about Marian apparitions like Lourdes, Fatima, Zeitoun, and many others. There is something called the White Lady archetype in Jungian thinking. Humans have a thing for luminous women popping up in odd places. (The white is their overall color, not their skin color--I have to say that in this race-nutso era.) Christianity shaped that archetype into the Mother of God in Christian visions. However, white ladies were originally a pagan archetype and are still being seen all over the place in contexts without any religious framework at all. Seeing odd things moving around in the sky is also an archetype. It gained strength in the first half of the 20th Century as popular culture embraced predictions of space travel and people from other worlds. In 1947, assisted by movies and TV, the archetype got legs. Note that these aren't purely mental glitches in the minds of the Navy pilots. These are disturbances in the physical world that generate/reflect light and can be photographed.

6. They are intrusions from higher spatial dimensions. Now, this hypothesis could also be tossed in that scruffy box with the poltergeists, but I mean it in a more rigorously geometrical way: If there are in fact more than three spatial dimensions (I've heard people talk about as many as nine) then suppose some four-dimensional being is poking at our planet with a stick. Imagine Flatland here, with a 3-D being poking at the surface of the plane or sphere or whatever 2-D surface you like. Moving that stick will appear to the denizens of Flatland as a cross-section of the stick moving around without any apparent cause. The cross-section of a four-dimensional stick would be a three-dimensional lump. Its motive power would be off in hyperspace where we can't see it. All we would see are the cross-sections of 4-D objects moving around like crazy, unimpeded by Newton's laws. Why? Who knows? Maybe it's the hyperspatial equivalent of skipping stones on a quiet lake, done simply for fun. Again, it's possible that whatever entity is holding the stick has no knowledge of us at all.

That's what I have so far. If I had to choose one to hold as most likely (and I don't) I would choose an application of novel physics by human scientists and engineers right down here on Earth. Secrets of that sort are very hard to keep, and I wonder if the leaks have begun, and the Feds are feeling their way toward eventual disclosure of the technology. It would be perhaps the most wonderful "unsettled science" ever discovered, as it would open the solar system to human exploration and habitation.

Remember that this is a rant, and I have my SFF writer's hat on. I embrace Haldane's Law: The universe is not only stranger than we imagine, it is stranger than we can imagine--and I can imagine a lot.

Odd Lots

  • Mercury has a tail. Whodathunkit? With all that solar wind blasting over it, the poor planet's already thin atmosphere is constantly being driven outward, forming a tail over 24 million kilometers long. That makes ol' Merc the biggest comet in the Solar System. You can't see it visually; if you're used to astrophotography, shoot through a sodium filter to make the tail more visible. Some good shots at the link; check it out.
  • NASA's OSIRIS-REx probe has left asteroid Bennu and is headed for home as fast as limited fuel and orbital mechanics allow. It's got 300 grams of asteroid dirt to drop, after which it will head into a parking orbit. NASA is considering another mission for the probe. Nothing crisp yet, but there's still some life in the device, so why waste it?
  • Having listened carefully to 60 million stars in toward the galactic center, the Breakthrough Listen project has found no sign of alien intelligence. We may be the one impossibly unlikely fluke that solved the Drake Equation.
  • Relevant to the above: Our dwarfy next-door neighbor Proxima Centauri spit out a flare a couple of years ago that was 100 times more powerful than anything we've ever seen out of our Sun. If too many dwarf stars are in this habit, it could bode ill for the chances of life elsewhere in our galaxy, where we have red dwarf stars like some people have mice.
  • I stumbled across a British news/opinion site whose USP is going against the grain of conventional wisdom. Given the current drain-spiral of American media, it can be useful to have a few overseas news sites on your bookmarks bar. This one is definitely contrarian. It's also sane and not prone to the often-comical frothing fury we see in news outlets here.
  • Tis the season to be stumbling, in fact: I stumbled upon Reversopedia, which is a compendium of things that we don't know or can't prove. The entries are odd lots for very large values of "odd." E.g: "Why is space 3-dimensional? And is it?" I love that sort of thing because it makes me think about matters that could easily become the central gimmicks of SF stories.
  • Bari Weiss posted a solid article on Substack saying what a lot of people are thinking but afraid to say out loud: That vaccinated people don't need masks, especially outside. Social pressure against mask skeptics is intense. Masks have become a culture-war thing, which is both absurd and dangerous: Antivaxxers are asking what is actually a sensible question: If the vaccines are real and not just saline solution, why do we have to keep wearing masks?
  • Substack (see above item) is an interesting concept, rather like a blog site that you can get paid for. A lot of articles can be read for free, and subscription fees for many writers are $5/month. It's not a gumball machine for articles, but rather a gumball machine for writers. A lot of writers who would be anathema in big national vehicles can write there, gather a following, and make a living.
  • Is sleeping with your TV on ok? Short answer: No. (And I'm wondering how old the stock photo in the article is, given that it shows a glass-screen TV.)
  • IBM has just created a proof-of-concept chip with a 2NM process. IBM's published density numbers for this node are 333M transistors per square millimeter, whew! They say 2NM will improve performance by 45% at the same power.
  • I haven't said much about my book project Odd Lots lately. It was a classic "odd moments" project accomplished in moments scattered across the last year or two. I just got the first proof copy back from Amazon and will be cleaning it up as time allows. Most of what's wrong are OCR errors of old writings for which I no longer have disk files and had to scan out of magazines. I expect to post it on Amazon before the end of May.

My Great-Grandmother's 150th Birthday

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I was adding a couple of new names to my Family Tree Maker 2019 database last week when I realized that Martha Winkelman Duntemann's 150th birthday was coming up. Today's the day, and for me it's worth some modest celebration. Martha (who died in 1967) is now 150 years old--and I knew her. That seems odd, bordering on the impossible somehow.

But it's true. Martha was born on a Bensenville, Illinois farm on April 10, 1871. I have a scan of an old plat map somewhere with the names of the farmers on their acreage. I believe the Winkelman farm was on land now part of O'Hare Field. The Duntemann farm certainly was. In fact, I discovered with a little mapwork that the Duntemann farmhouse was almost directly where the airport's boiler plant is. You see it from the freeway coming out of the main terminal on your right. Interestingly, my father was the gas company liaison engineer to the city when they built the gas-fired boiler plant in the early 1960s. He never knew (as best I recall) that his great-grandfather's farm was right there.

Martha married Frank W. Duntemann on January 31, 1892. She was 19; he 24. They had two sons: Harry George Duntemann, born on October 20 of that year, and Elvin Frederick Duntemann, born July 16, 1895. Harry was my grandfather, and Uncle El was a jolly, goodhearted man whom I saw less often than I should have. Martha's husband Frank died in 1936. My father was named after him. The family photo shown below is undated, but by the ages of the boys I'm guessing 1900.

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Frank did not go into farming as most of his four brothers did. Instead he established a general store in the little railroad town of Orchard Place, Illinois, roughly where Higgins Road crosses the Soo Line railroad. Soon after the store opened, Frank got the job of Orchard Place postmaster, which he held until a year or two before he died.

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The family lived over the general store. Martha shut the store down after Frank died and Des Plaines took over the mail processing. By 1936 she was 65, and did not want to tend the store on her own. Her son Elvin took some of the inventory and created a coal and building materials dealership in a new, larger building up the road a ways, which was in business well into the 1950s. The store was converted to a separate first-floor apartment. Martha lived the rest of her life on the second story, alone, for another 30 years.

Orchard Place met its end in the mid-1950s. The Feds literally dropped an Interstate on it. The NW Tollway was built over what little "main street" the town had. Before the toll road was built, many of the old houses, including the General Store building, were moved a few blocks north into what by then was a Des Plaines residential neighborhood. The old store building is still there on Curtis Street, and is now owned by one of my cousins, a grandchild of Uncle El.

Martha was less alone than you might think. There were several Duntemann families on the same block, including Elvin and his three children and their families. When we went out to visit when I was a kid, I played with my cousins, but always went upstairs to say hi and get a hug from my great-grandma. I have a grainy b/w photo from 1954 or 1955 (below) including four Duntemann generations: Martha, her son Harry and his wife, Harry's son Frank (my father), my mother, my Aunt Kathleen, Oh, and two dogs, Willie and Rebel, who didn't particularly get along. Rebel is cut off at the bottom of the photo, held firmly in place by my mother. Willie, on my dad's lap, apparently wanted to be anywhere else but there.


Martha was rail-thin, energetic, and spry to the end of her life. She had 19 great-grandchildren and often had a pile of my younger cousins on her lap:

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She went up and down the stairs to her apartment unaided until three weeks before she died at age 96, and never missed church on Sundays. She is buried beside her husband Frank at Town of Maine Cemetery, Park Ridge.

Obviously, I wish I had known her better. But she lived out in the burbs, and died when I was 14. Remarkably, she outlived all four of my grandparents (including her son Harry) who died when I was 2, 4, 12, and 13. I wished I'd known them better too--granting that my mother's parents were Polish immigrants who didn't speak English.

So here's to you, Great-Grandma! Happy 150th Birthday! You carried the flame of life down to me (and by now, hordes of others including my sister's girls and my cousins who now have kids who have kids, yikes!) and it was an honor to know you even as little as I did. You are my link to a time when trains ran on coal and Chicago's suburbs were mostly cornfields. Until we meet again...go with God, and rest assured that the gift of life you gave us has not been wasted.


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Carol and I went grocery shopping this morning, and came home with the biggest damn apple either of us had ever seen. It's a honeycrisp, which we've had before, many times. However, none of them were ever like this honeycrisp. They weren't labeled "giant honeycrisp" or anything. And while this was the largest one in the display, the others were just about as big. If you don't eat apples very often, you'll find a comparison photo between The Giant Apple and an ordinary Gala below:

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Wow. Just wow.

Yesterday, Arizona's governor made masking optional, and allowed bars, restaurants, and gyms to open at full capacity. O dear Lord, the dudgeon; the moaning and the groaning and the predictions that everyone in Arizona is gonna die. Well, the graph of COVID-19 deaths here is down to single digits per day, and over three million people in Arizona have received at least one shot. The state is running some of its vaccine centers 24/7, and now anyone over the age of 17 can make an appointment to be vaccinated. No one knows how many people had a brush with the virus but never even noticed. It might be a lot, mostly younger, and now mostly resistant to infection. We're far closer to herd immunity than anyone in the media or government is willing to admit.

I check that ADHS graph every morning. No one knows why we had the fall/winter surge with mask compliance at 90% here. This tells me masks really don't help much. Some of that may be because masks don't protect your eyes. More may be that the virus does indeed travel as an aerosol, which might be slightly attenuated by a typical mask--but only slightly. No one knows, including our supposed "experts," who say whatever they're told by the people who own them, and lie on demand, all "for the greater good."

The media (and most of our elites) really doesn't want the pandemic to end. It was a titanic ego trip for them, to pump out endless panic porn and watch people obey them slavishly and persecute others who were skeptical. There's backlash brewing: CNN's ratings are in freefall, and the sooner they collapse and go under, the better. Some in the medical community are now calling foul on harassing the general public. Cord-cutting may finish the job that the backlash began: Carol and I dumped cable TV and now keep cable service solely for Internet access. I've been investigating Internet Radio to fill the gaps. The units are basically low-end computers with network connections, and can be had for less than $200. Music is big, but there is plenty of news and weather if you know their IPs. Internet radio is basically the stake hovering over the heart of cable TV/audio, and the hammer is coming down.

Reception of our local classical radio station KBAQ can be spotty. It gets disrupted when a jet flies over the house, heading for the Scottsdale airport. (This happens a lot.) They stream over the Internet, and with an Internet radio, I won't have to worry about multipath or other species of radio interference.

Since we've moved to Phoenix, I've noticed that an entire genre of computer retailers is missing: the box shop. By that I mean a place that would put together a custom PC for you. I had a machine built at Fry's back in 2018, but Fry's is now gone. I had a great box shop up in Colorado Springs. That's where my current (aging) desktop came from. I need a new one, but if box shops still exist here, they hide well. Yes, yes, I could do it myself, and if I must I will. But having done it many times before, I consider it a bad use of my time.

Alas, the Thermaltake case I used back in 2012, their BlacX, no longer exists. That's the one with two SATA drive slots in the top panel, so you can plug barenaked SATA drives into the top for quick backups. I suspect the BlacX was popular in the LAN party era, but like box shops, LAN parties are receding into the misty past at 40% C. Thermaltake does make a 2-slot external SATA dock, which I'm guessing I'll end up using.

The pool water is now at 61°. We bought a new solar cover a few weeks ago. As soon as the water hits 70°, we'll spread it out, and in another week or so the water should be at 80°, which for me is the lower limit of swimming temperatures. Winter here was nice, but it's gone. The pool makes the summers worthwhile.

I tried rereading Olaf Stapledon's Last and First Men, but the 1968 Dover paperback I have is laid out with such small type that even with reading glasses, it gives me headaches. Ebooks arrived just in time for my old eyes. I also bought the NESFA Press hardcover of Believing, which is a collection of all the non-People stories of Zenna Henderson. It wasn't cheap, but it's a handsome book, and will replace several crumbling MMPBs from the '60s. Oddly, it's not on Amazon. I had to order it direct from NESFA.

And with that, I declare today over. Time to hit the sack. Much to do tomorrow.

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Review: Where Is Everybody? by Stephen Webb

41oxPnAPxHL._SX327_BO1,204,203,200_.jpgI have a lot of books. In general, when I buy (or somehow acquire) a book I read it right away. I realized a few weeks ago that although my sister gave me a copy of Ingathering by Zenna Henderson some years back, it got shelved without being read. My bad. My review is in my entry for 2/9/2021.

So I went hunting for other books in this situation. The Principle of Mediocrity applies here: If there was one unread book on my shelves, there will probably be others. It didn't take long to find one: Where Is Everybody? by Stephen Webb. It's not a new book. It was published in 2002, and sent to me for review in 2003 by an editor at Copernicus Books, Paul Farrell. 2002 was not a good year for me, for reasons you know already. In a way, it remains the annus horribilis of my life. In 2003 we moved away from Arizona to get away from constant reminders of the horribilis. (For newcomers: 2002 was the year my publishing company here in Arizona crashed and burned, through no fault of my own. Long story.) So I guess it's unsurprising that the book went onto the shelves unread. In fact, it probably went straight into a box. I (finally) finished it an hour or so ago.

As an SF writer, it's a topic I have a keen interest in: aliens, and the cogent question asked by physicist Enrico Fermi way back in 1944: If there is life elsewhere in the universe, why haven't we encountered evidence of it yet?

Good question. A lot of really smart people have grappled with it, but the (obvious) spoiler is that we don't know. (Yet.) Where Is Everybody? is a systematic presentation of fifty proposed explanations for why we've not encountered the Galactic Confederation. The author gives each a number and takes us through them in order, explaining why none of them really answers Fermi's question. For example, Solution 20 is "We Have Not Listened Long Enough." There's a lot of Universe, and we've only been listening to "waterhole" frequencies for an insignificant amount of time, compared to the lifetime of our galaxy. Solution 44 is "The Prokaryote-Eukaryote Transition Is Rare." That was a new one for me (biology is not my field) and involves the jump between primordial single-celled life and the more complex form of single-celled life that eventually evolved into multicellular organisms. We can't explain how it happened, but somehow it did. Was it a fluke? Don't know.

Stephen Webb separates the 50 proposed explanations of the Fermi Question into three broad groups: 1. They Are Already Here. 2. They Exist But Have Not Yet Communicated. And 3. They Do Not Exist. A lot of the issues are things I had read about elsewhere. A surprising number were new to me. Along the way, he talks about the Drake Equation and how it relates to the probability of finding intelligent life beyond Earth. In a sense, most of the issues discussed in the book either represent existing terms of the Drake Equation, or could be considered new ones.

All the usual explanations are taken up: berserkers, species suicide here on Earth, the Rare Earth hypothesis (which is actually taken up in several parts, each with its own number and section in the book) gamma ray bursters, asteroid bombardment, giant planets in the wrong places, lack of a Moon, lack of plate tectonics in most rocky planets, and so on.

A few of the proposed solutions may strike some as outre. Solution 7 is "The Planetarium Hypothesis," which proposes that we are living in a simulated universe, with the superhuman aliens behind the scenes, pulling the levers and observing us. That's an interesting one because it can be disproven, using what we know about the data and energy requirements of a simulation as good as our reality suggests. Solution 8 is "God Exists," and He set things up just right for the universe to evolve us--and perhaps created an infinitude of other universes either sterile or fine-tuned to benefit other intelligent life. I'm reminded of Olaf Stapledon's 1937 pseudo-novel Star Maker, in which an unthinkably powerful being creates a series of universes, each more "mature" than the last. (I found the book largely impenetrable when I read it at 17. It may be worth another look 51 years later. If nothing else, I've developed patience in the interim.)

Webb's writing is refreshingly clear and easygoing. He's a natural explainer, in the same way that Isaac Asimov was. He cites a lot of researchers and their research as he explains each topic, and there is a fat section of references and pointers to further readings at the back of the book. I came away from it feeling satisfied with the time I spent, and better still, that I learned something--a lot of somethings, in fact--along the way.

Webb does not intend to prove (or disprove) the existemce of Extrarrestial Civilizations (ETCs). The point of the book (or the joker in the deck, if you're a fervent believer in ETCs) is that we do not have anything close to enough data to form a conclusion. He does confirm the feeling I had as he explained one possible solution after another: There are a lot of very difficult hurdles between a sterile planet and a starfaring civilization. By the end, I felt that he had added a good fifteen or twenty new terms to the Drake Equation. If those new terms are as difficult as our research suggests, yes, we are indeed an exceedingly unlikely Cosmic Fluke, and probably alone in the universe.

This doesn't bother me, even as a science fiction writer. When I was a teen and for a few years afterward, I wrote stories about aliens. However, I've judged only two of them good enough to put before the public: Firejammer and "Born Again, With Water." My conclusion is mostly this: If intelligent alien life exists elsewhere in the universe and we come upon them, we may not have much to talk about. We may not be able to talk to them at all. Shared experience, even the shared experience of being born into an orderly and comprehensible universe, may be impossible across the gulf to an alien mind.

That is, unless you count my Metaspace Saga, in which aliens create our universe as a way of obtaining a better random-number generator. Except--they're not really aliens. No more spoilers. I'm working on it. There are some hints in The Cunning Blood. The rest will come out eventually.

In the meantime, I powerfully recommend Stephen Webb's book. What I didn't notice until I went up to schnarf the book's cover image for this entry is that he published a second edition in 2015--and now he's got seventy-five proposed solutions to tackle. I'll pick that one up eventually. In the meantime, I'm scanning my shelves for other gems that may have been hiding from me. They're in there somewhere. Like I said, I have a lot of books.